Abstract

This study aims to integrate Markov chain, automatic network (CA) and AHP and to research and predict the trend of changes in land use land cover (LULC) in Van Yen district, Yen Bai province until 2030. The research results have established a map predicting LULC fluctuations in the period 2025 - 2030 for 7 types of LULC: residential/construction land, annual crops, perennial crops, specialty forests (Cinnamon), production forests, protection forests, bare land/shrubs. LULC types have fluctuations in area with a tendency to decrease the area of ​​production forests, protection forests, and water surfaces. In particular, the area of ​​bare land/shrubs tends to decrease the most. Meanwhile, the area of ​​construction land tends to increase sharply along main traffic routes, along with the area of ​​annual and perennial trees also tends to increase, in which specialty forests (Cinnamon) have the strongest upward trend. The forecast results are consistent with the land use planning orientation and agricultural and forestry development planning during the 2021-2030 stage.